The US election left a lot of people scratching their heads. Once again the polls missed the mark. Despite predicting a tight race between Trump and Harris, Trump walked away with all seven swing states, and a comfortable victory. So what happened? Why was there such a huge gap between the forecast and what actually happened at the ballot box?
Given the record, it’d be easy to start thinking that quantitative research like this is a waste of time. For us, inaccurate results like these are a strong reminder of just how important it is to use robust, well-designed research methods. When done right, quantitative research is an incredibly powerful tool for revealing (actually useful) insights about your market and consumers.
2024 US elections: a cautionary tale
One of the clearest lessons from the 2024 elections was the failure of traditional polling methods to truly capture the perspectives of diverse voter groups, especially younger voters and Latino communities.
A big reason for this is the heavy dependence on traditional survey techniques, like phone or online surveys, which don’t always reach or connect with everyone in the same way. Younger voters, for example, are often less inclined to respond to phone surveys or structured forms, and Latino voters—who make up a growing share of the electorate—are (it turns out) underrepresented because of language barriers or the lack of focused outreach.
Social desirability bias also played a role. This happens when people don’t feel comfortable sharing their true intentions because they want to align with what they think is socially acceptable. I.e. people fibbed about voting for Kamala.
This election shone a light on how these traditional polling methods, combined with unchecked biases, can lead to some pretty distorted results. And this isn’t just an issue in politics; it’s something that comes up for any business trying to gather reliable insights about their audiences. That’s why a fresh, more thoughtful approach is so important to avoid money down the drain.
Getting accurate, reliable insights
Step one: Make sure you’ve got a representative sample
Having a sample that truly reflects your target audience is key to getting valuable insights from your research. If your sample doesn’t represent the people you’re trying to understand, the data can be off, meaning you may end up making decisions based on skewed info. That’s why having a well-defined sample spec is so important. A good sample spec clearly outlines who you need to survey—covering things like demographics (age, gender, income), psychographics (interests, lifestyle), and even location or behaviour. This helps you reach the right mix of people, so your results give you an accurate picture of your audience and lead to better decision-making.
Step two: Overcome bias
Bias, especially social bias, can have a huge impact on the way people answer questions. Researchers must create questionnaires and surveys that make respondents feel comfortable enough to be honest.
In quantitative research, this can be achieved through indirect questioning or careful survey design.
In focus groups, the environment and the moderator’s demeanour play a huge role in encouraging sincerity.
Step three: Look beyond the numbers
Data by itself doesn’t always tell you the whole story – combining it with qualitative research allows you to understand the “why” behind the behaviour.
Through one-on-one interviews, ethnographies*, or focus groups, you can dive deeper into understanding not just what consumers choose, but why they make those choices.
This blend of quantitative and qualitative approaches helps deliver richer insights into the complex motivations guiding consumer behaviour.
* a qual research method used to study people in their natural environment and get a deeper understanding of their behaviour, attitudes, and influences.
The upside of getting it right
Yes, the polling errors raised some eyebrows, but silver lining, they’re a reminder of the need to continuously refine and strengthen our research approaches.
When done well, quantitative research is a key tool for turning deep insights into strategic decisions that align with what consumers truly want and need.
Let's talk researchWritten by our research, insights and brand tracking team:
Amy Graham, Head of Research
Olivia Higson, Senior Researcher
Samantha Trow, Senior Researcher